SD-001 - Libyan Army Chief Dies in Plane Crash
Savera Dossier 01 - Libya
Recent Intelligence
On 23 December at 22:11 (Ankara Time) Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya posted on Twitter that the Falcon 50-type business jet (tail number 9H-DFJ) with the Chief of Staff of the Libyan Army (GNU-aligned) Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad had lost contact shortly after departing the Esenboğa Airport (ESB):
Yerlikaya said that the jet was due to arrive at Tripoli and there was an emergency landing notification near Haymana, a town close to the Capital, Ankara.
Nearly an hour later Yerlikaya informed that the wreckage of the jet had been reached by Turkish gendarmerie forces 2 kilometres south of Kesikkavak, a village northwest of Haymana.
Yerlikaya had a typo in the tail number (9H-DF(J) instead of DF(S)). 9H-DFS, a Dassault Falcon 50, indeed had departed ESB around the reported time and shortly stopped signalling ADS-B broadcast, as FlightAware and FlightRadar data shows. https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/business-jet-crashes-near-ankara-carrying-libyan-military-leader/
9H-DFS, or HMJ185, is a business jet owned and operated by Harmony Jets Limited, a business aviation company based in Malta.
About two hours after the latter tweet, Reuters reported that the Libyan Prime Minister of the internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) had confirmed the death of Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad as well as the four other staff inside the flight. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/signal-lost-with-jet-believed-be-carrying-libyan-army-chief-over-ankara-media-2025-12-23/
What is going on in Libya?
Historical Context and Refresher
Libya was formed by the post-Ottoman colonisation of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica as they were seized by Italy. Resistance was persistent throughout the colonial period, most notably through the guerrilla campaigns led by Omar al-Mukhtar until his death in 1931. By 1934, it was an integrated colony as Italian Libya. When the end of World War II brought the defeat of Italy by the Allied powers, then-formed United Nations brought forward the Resolution 289 for the unification of Libya - resulting in the Kingdom of Libya by 1951.
Until the last two decades Libya was ruled by heavily centralised power. The Kingdom governed the country until it was overthrown by Gaddafi in 1969. Gaddafi also consolidated a centralised rule until a civil war broke through anti-regime activity in 2011. The anti-regime movement was later sponsored by NATO, leading to a total overthrow of Gaddafi rule the same year, leaving the country, its institutions and its territory balkanised to this day.
Until 2014, an assortment of militias ruled over different territories. Between 2014 and 2020, another civil war took place between the militias. The ceasefire introduced during 2020 lessened the combat and showcased efforts for political normalisation, and a will for re-establishment of political institutions. However, existing local accumulations of power, such as militias, ideological alliances (the UN-recognised pro-Islamist majority Government of National Unity (GNU) in the West versus the de facto secular rule by the military leader Haftar in the East), and militias have been reluctant to share power and have not been able to reconcile.
May 2025 brought an armed conflict in Tripoli as a local militia leader was killed and the territory and power under his leadership was replaced by GNU-aligned militia. After years of expectancy by the local populace for an effecitve governance has been met with stagnation due to constant armed conflict and political intrigue. The instability in Libya has grown exponentially: after 6 decades of centralised rule, months of civil war lead to a fracture of the region which led to a prolonged civil war over the span of 9 years, the consequence of which has been fractured territory and institutions for the last few years of sporadic armed clashes, the latest being May 2025-onwards.
As of now, Libya is on a deadlock between Islamist, Secular, and fringe actors who have divided the country’s territory, capital, and resources by military, political, and/or economic coercion. International actors have been ever-present throughout the process, whether it is through reconciliation efforts of the international organisations or through the proxy struggles of third-states, and countries like Turkey are open in their involvement. Turkey, who has recent years showcased open support for the GNU against the Eastern authorities, is reported to also have established dialogue with Haftar family in the East since April 2025.
Who is Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad?
Mohammed Ali Ahmed al-Haddad is an ex-defector from the Gaddafi rule, risen to lead the GNU military in 2020. His tenancy until his death in December 2025 showcased many visits to Turkey.
Overall Risk Assessment
(Savera SEPH Framework Accumulative: 7.75/10 - Very High Risk)
S - Security / Stability Risks (Risk Level 8/10)
Libya has seen increased armed conflict within the second-quarter of 2025. On May 12, armed clashes took place in Tripoli, where the local militia leader Abdulghani Kikli (a.k.a. Ghaniwa, who controlled the internal security agency) was killed, and factions aligned with Dbeibah (PM) rapidly seized his turf.[^1][^2] May 14 quickly brought truce efforts, [^3] and in the ongoing days PM Dbeibah declared eliminating militias to be an ongoing project. [^4] Truce efforts through committee discussions resumed the rest of May [^5][^6]. The sporadic clashes brought community calls for demilitarisation of Tripoli.[^8] Despite the truce efforts and community pressure, the UN reported mobilisation of forces and heavy weaponry in Tripoli by July. [^9]
The military establishments within Libya are also reported to get involved with bordering conflicts. In Jun 10, Sudanese army accuses eastern Haftar forces of supporting Rapid Support Forces in border attack. [^7]
It is increasingly difficult to retrieve reliable information from inside Libya, as reports of threats to media professionals increase. [^10]
E - Economic / Business Risks (Risk Level 5/10)
As much as the internal struggles and armed conflict has mauled Libyan economy, the country’s Central Bank and National Oil Corporation are semi-neutral environments where fracturing which can be seen in the rest of Libya is less visible. Supplying oil to many parts of the world, Libya makes use of the international dependency on it despite the struggles it faces.
To showcase the economic strain, Libya devalued its currency by 13.3%, on April 2025, second time in the last five years (2020 was the first).[^11] Internal power struggle is also a potential hinder, as in June, eastern-based parliament passes budget of USD 12.71bn for its development fund, which unclear if the internationally recognised GNU will provide.[^12] The east holds many of the oil zones.
In the meantime, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) resumes its activities to drive oil investment. In April, NOC presented 22 fields for oil exploration to potential investors in London,[^13] which comes after the country expresses the need for USD 3-4 billion to boost oil production [^14] Subsequently, the Italian energy group Eni announced EUR 24bn investment on North African oil over the span of four years, including Libya, [^15] coinciding with the Italian Mattei plan on regenerating relations with Africa for a proposed self-dependency in hopes of curbing migration. [^16] July brought the signing of a “memorandum of understanding” with BP, Shell, Eni, OVM, Repsol by NOC, [^17] while Mellitah Oil, a joint venture between NOC and Italy’s Eni, announced a gas project with U.S. firm Hill International. [^21] The oil ventures saw boost as NOC signed a memorandum of understanding with ExxonMobil while also announcing a joint forum with the United States for boosting oil partnerships. [^22] [^23]
A private deal between Turkey and Libya in regards to maritime economic zones has been in process over the past year, causing a dispute over the efforts of hydrocarbon exploration by Greece over the Island of Crete. [^24]
Despite the efforts, oil business in Libya is frequently troubled by incidents of high risk. On May 24, the Zawiya pipeline shut down due to oil leak. [^18]Just four days later, eastern based government hinted on force majeure on oil fields under their control, citing repeated assaults by GNU on the NOC, which GNU denied. [^19] Furthermore, oil tanker explosion took place in June, causing fears over potential sabotage. [^20]
P - Political Risks (9/10)
The political instruments in Libya has been in a deadlock of rivalry and contestation since the scheduled election dating back to 2021 did not take place over the disputes of candidate eligibility between the two halves. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) established an advisory committee to facilitate the political recovery process.
On May 6, 2025, the Advisory Committee U.N. Support Mission in Libya finalised their recommendations in options for moving forward and submitted their report:
1. reconstitution of the high national election commission to address the electoral issues, and the simultaneous election of a new executive and legislative authority for the purposes of managing the electoral process of a transitional period not exceeding 24 months,
2. a 24 month transitional phase that brings legislative elections first with the purpose of establishing a permanent constitution, then election of a restricted executive power in terms of declarations of state of emergency, martial law, or war,
3. adoption of a permanent constitution before conducting the election of a bicameral legislative within 24 months, and
4. as a last-resort contingency measure, a constituent assembly in accordance with the agreement from the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Geneva, requiring “sixty (60) members of competence, integrity, complementary specializations, and fair representation of various segments of society” to act as a legislative power for a 4-year mandate.
On May 16, protestors call PM Dbeibah to quit. [^25] The public consultation of the advisory report began shortly after, [^26] where residents of multiple major Libyan cities expressed distrust in the political elite, showcasing preference with the 4th option of a constituent assembly, [^27] though the option 4 was eliminated in the polling process: 42% of UNSMIL poll respondents preferred option 1, 23% preferred option 4.[^28]
Mid-August 2025 showcased attempts of obstruction of municipal elections[^29] through arson attacks on High National Election Commission, [^30] though on August 17 Municipal Elections moved further. [^31]
In the foreign policy front, Libya is a partner in conversations regarding migration-related policy issues of EU. However, a diplomatic incident took place on July 9, where the EU migration commissioner was denied entry, authorities citing protocol issue.[^32]
In August 2025, Turkey, Italy and Libya discuss cooperation over the Mediterranean migration route.[^33] A shift from its regular stance, Turkish dialogue with the Haftars took place from April 2025-onwards. [^43]
H - Humanitarian / Social Risks (9/10)
Constant civil, political, and military instability in Libya has reduced its capacity for effective governance, especially in public service. Infrastructure and public safety issues came to a breaking point due to emergencies such as Storm Daniel, Derna flood, and dam breaches. [^34] [^35]
The longstanding conflict also caused humanitrarian strife: The International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Working Group of the Berlin Process (the Netherlands, Switzerland, and UNSMIL) reported civilian harm over the surge of armed conflict on May 2025. [^36] The surge also left behind unidentified corpses in a hospital in Tripoli,[^37] disappearances, [^38] unofficial detention centres, [^39] and deaths in custody.[^40]
On August 9, ICC issued and arrest warrant for Saif Suleiman Sneidel, a Group 50 member from Al-Saiqa Brigade. [^41]
Being a common migration route, altercations involving migrants also take place in Libya. In July, more than 100 migrants freed from captivity by gang inside Libya. [^42]
Sources
[^1]: (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/armed-clashes-erupt-libyas-tripoli-after-reported-killing-armed-group-leader-2025-05-12)
[^2]: (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libya-clashes-point-growing-power-turkey-allied-pm-2025-05-13)
[^3]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/statement-attributable-spokesperson-un-secretary-general-libya
[^4]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libyas-pm-says-eliminating-militias-is-ongoing-project-ceasefire-holds-2025-05-17
[^5]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-and-presidency-council-launch-truce-committee-%C2%A0
[^6]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/libyan-notables-community-leaders-and-local-mediators-discuss-ways-support-tripoli-truce-and-build
[^7]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudanese-military-says-rival-paramilitary-forces-backed-by-libyas-haftar-forces-2025-06-10
[^8]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/community-leaders-call-unsmil-support-demilitarization%C2%A0%C2%A0tripoli
[^9]: (https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-calls-peaceful-dialogue-de-escalation-tripoli) (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/un-mission-libya-urges-immediate-de-escalation-tripoli-2025-07-09)
[^10]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-training-media-professionals-how-protect-against-digital-threats
[^11]: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/libya-devalues-currency-first-time-four-years-2025-04-06
[^12]: (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libyas-eastern-based-parliament-passed-budget-its-development-fund-2025-06-03)
[^13]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libya-offer-22-areas-oil-exploration-with-attractive-terms-investors-officials-2025-04-07
[^14]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libya-needs-3-4-bln-boost-oil-production-bidding-round-expected-soon-oil-2025-01-18
[^15]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italys-eni-invest-26-billion-north-africa-over-next-four-years-ceo-says-2025-04-08
[^16]: https://www.reuters.com/world/meloni-looks-reset-italys-relations-with-africa-2024-01-26
[^17]: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-and-noc-sign-mou-to-explore-redevelopment-of-giant-libyan-oilfields-and-unconventional-potential.html | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-shell-study-hydrocarbon-potential-three-libyan-oilfields-2025-07-07 | https://www.ft.com/content/56e09209-5985-469c-a83a-6b49a3785128
[^18]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/libya-says-oil-leak-occurs-pipeline-south-zawiya-city-2025-05-24
[^19]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libyas-eastern-based-government-says-it-may-announce-force-majeure-oil-fields-2025-05-28
[^20]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/no-injuries-or-pollution-after-explosion-oil-tanker-off-libya-says-operator-2025-06-30 | https://www.ft.com/content/b2671301-d71f-4781-8d8d-86f7b350ff3c
[^21]: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/libyas-mellitah-oil-gas-work-with-us-firm-hill-international-gas-project-2025-07-23
[^22]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libyas-noc-signs-memorandum-understanding-with-exxonmobil-after-decade-2025-08-04
[^23]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libyas-noc-host-joint-us-energy-forum-boost-oil-gas-investment-2025-08-24
[^24]: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libya-objects-greek-tender-hydrocarbon-exploration-off-crete-2025-06-20 | https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/libya-turkey-sign-geological-geophysical-mou-four-offshore-areas-noc-says-2025-06-25 | https://www.reuters.com/article/world/greece-registers-disagreement-with-libya-turkey-maritime-accord-idUSKBN1Y82JB
[^25]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/middle-east/two-ministers-internationally-recognized-libyan-government-resign-2025-05-16
[^26]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-hears-community-representatives-zintan-and-misrata-it-starts-public-consultation-process
[^27]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/libyans-benghazi-relay-frustrations-about-political-and-security-situation-unsmil-propose-solutions
[^28]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/22584-people-responded-results-unsmil’s-poll-political-process
[^29]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-condemns-attempts-obstruct-municipal-elections
[^30]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-strongly-condemns-arson-attacks-hnec-field-offices-eve-elections
[^31]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-leaders-visit-polling-centres-welcome-successful-elections-26-municipalities
[^32]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/eu-migration-commissioner-was-denied-entry-eastern-libya-over-protocol-issue-eu-2025-07-09
[^33]: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-italy-libya-leaders-discuss-mediterranean-migration-route-cooperation-2025-08-01
[^34]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/statement-co-chairs-international-follow-committee-libya-20-june-2025
[^35]: https://www.internal-displacement.org/spotlights/Libya-Years-of-conflict-and-weakened-infrastructure-compound-Derna-flood-impact
[^36]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/statement-co-chairs-international-humanitarian-law-and-human-rights-working-group-international-0
[^37]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/least-58-corpses-found-libyan-hospital-ministry-says-2025-05-19
[^38]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/unsmil-calls-independent-investigation-disappearance-hor-member-ibrahim-al-dersi-and-circulating
[^39]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/libya-sites-gross-human-rights-violations-must-be-sealed-and-impartially-investigated-türk
[^40]: https://unsmil.unmissions.org/statement-co-chairs-international-humanitarian-law-and-human-rights-working-group-unsmil-netherlands
[^41]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/icc-issues-arrest-warrant-for-libyan-war-crimes-suspect-2025-08-08
[^42]: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/more-than-100-migrants-freed-libya-after-being-held-captive-by-gang-officials-2025-07-14
[^43]: https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0004wmn